The Major League Baseball season is twice as long as any other sports and playing back to back game is the rule, not the exception. With a lot of games on the schedule, it is not both physically and mentally possible for any team to be motivated for every game, which is one reason why the top teams win around 60% of their games, whereas the worst teams will normally win around 40% of their games.
In the NBA, it is not unusual to find teams win 75% of their games, whereas the teams which try to avoid having the worst records in the league will typically win less than 30% of their games.
One of the keys for sports bettors is to try and make predictions on when teams will be up for a game and there is one situation in baseball, when a team is likely to give that extra effort. It involves being previously humiliated by their opponents and having something to prove the next time they take the field.
Baseball’s Quick Revenge System
The method consists of teams which play at home and were defeated by 3 or more runs the previous game by the same team they play today.
A team that was embarrassed in front of the home fans is possible to want to return the favor in the worst possible way.
One requirement of this system is the team we look to bet on is favored in the game. The reason is that we want to ensure the team we are betting on is fairly comparable in ability to the team they just lost to, or that we have a big advantage in the beginning pitchers.
If the Kansas City Royals fly to Florida and beat Miami by a score of 9-5 in the first game of a series, the Marlins can be motivated to win the next game, however, may not have the talent to compete with the Royals and Kansas City is possible to be favored in all 3 games, so Miami wouldn’t be a play under the system.
In 2014 and 2015, these teams were 438-304, which would have shown a flat bet gain of $1,984. The average price was -145, so you do have to win close to 58% of your bets to break even and these teams won 60.2%, so you get a profit.
Play the Run Line
You can play the home teams on the run line owning to the assumption that after being embarrassed they will try their best to return the favor. Naturally, the home team’s winning percentage is going to be smaller when you lay the 1.5 runs, but the difference in odds compensates that. In the 2014 and 2015 seasons these teams were 267-367, but did show a profit of $3,932, which is twice as much as what those wagering the team to win straight up showed.
Since you are betting quite a bit less, because rather than risking $145 to win $100 on the money line, you are at risk on average of $100 to win $153, your return on risk will be quite a bit higher. Those betting on the money line showed a return of 2.2% of every dollar bet, whereas those playing the home team on the run line showed a return of 6.1% for every dollar bet.